A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
